RICS Global Commercial Property Survey Q2 2008
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey Q2 2008
Reveals Major Trends in Commercial Property Markets Worldwide
Developed World Continues to Suffer Financial Woes
While Bullish Emerging Markets Show Signs of Slowing
Yield Shift Gathers Momentum on Global Slowdown
New York, July 31, 2008 – RICS, the largest organization for professionals in property, land, construction and related environmental issues worldwide, today released the highly-anticipated RICS Global Commercial Property Survey for the second quarter of 2008. RICS members worldwide submitted office, retail and industrial market data for their respective markets, which was then compiled and analyzed on a global scale for the second quarter of 2008 in comparison to Q1 2008 and 2007 data.
Major trends drawn from the survey results include:
o A rise in yields was recorded in emerging markets for the first time in the survey’s history as aggressive inflation fighting in some emerging market locations has impacted upon commercial property pricing.
o The pace of Capital Values growth halved in the developing world.
o Deterioration in occupier activity/increased vacancy across the developed world in Q2 with some emerging markets also losing steam.
o Tenant demand fell at a faster pace in the developed world in the second quarter as compared to the first quarter of 2008.
o Transaction volumes and capital values plummeted as the commercial property market suffered under financial liquidity constraints, with the worst hit areas being North America, Australasia, Western Europe and to a lesser degree Developed Asia. Office, industrial and Retail sectors all suffered with the retail market the most depressed area and the office sector dropping to a further low.
o Rental expectations were most negative across North America and Developed Asia primarily as a result of weaker U.S. and Japanese economies respectively. Rental expectations remain positive across Australasia and other emerging markets, except for retail sectors of Emerging Europe where rents stagnated in Q2.
o Commercial investment activity continued to slide in all regions, with poor activity across North America, but Latin America shows growth.
o The weakest investment markets were seen in North America, Australasia and Western Europe. Indeed, of the more than 50 countries surveyed, 7 of the 10 worst performing countries are located in Western Europe with the most negative sentiment towards prices for Q3 expected in the Republic of Ireland and Spain. Outside Western Europe, Hungary, New Zealand and South Africa displayed the most negative sentiment towards future prices with the US positioned only one place above the bottom 10.
• Steve Williams FRICS, Past Chairman of RICS Americas, Partner of Williams Murdoch and Global Advisor for Real Capital Analytics supported the survey findings by adding that ”New York, as a major world financial center, remains resilient to the worst aspects of the US economic recession. While percentage annual rental and value growth is down, most investors consider New York to be stable and in the
long-term, low risk”.
RICS Senior Economist, Oliver Gilmartin said:
“The pace of upward yield shift gathered momentum across many markets in the second quarter as renewed fears over a prolonged economic slowdown has raised risk premiums and the real possibility of increasing voids. The outlook for rents has been pared back across many markets to include some emerging markets where the battle against inflation has taken centre stage.
Significantly, inducements are on the rise in every global region outside of Latin America, a trend which has historically provided a lead indicator for slowing rental advance. Markets exposed to the housing and consumer slowdowns are unsurprisingly displaying the weakest sentiment on downgrades to economic growth with the retail sector the least favoured in every region outside Emerging Asia and Africa & Middle East.”
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About the Global Commercial Property Survey
RICS’ Global Commercial Property Survey is a quarterly guide to the developing trends in the commercial property investment and occupier market. This edition details market conditions for the second quarter of 2008 based on information collected from leading international real estate organisations and local firms.
Methodology
Survey questionnaires were sent to real estate organisations in June 2008, with responses received up until the 14th of July 2008. Respondents were asked to compare conditions over the latest three months with the previous three months. A total of 410 responses were received.
Responses have been amalgamated across the three real estate sub-sectors of offices, retail and industrial property at a city level, to form diffusion indices for the commercial market as a whole.
The eight world regional groupings have been derived through the weighting of city level diffusion data using city population and country gross domestic product statistics.
About RICS & RICS Americas
RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors), with headquarters in London, is the largest organization for professionals in property, land, construction and related environmental issues worldwide. We promote best practice, regulation and consumer protection to business and the public. Over 145,000 members in more than 146 countries operate across 17 disciplines, from development, brokerage and construction to environmental issues, valuation and fine arts appraisal. RICS is the preeminent source of real estate-related knowledge, providing independent, impartial advice to governments and global organizations. www.rics.org. The RICS credentials - MRICS and FRICS - are granted to practitioners who demonstrate professional competence and the highest standards of business practice and ethics through stringent evaluation procedures.
RICS Americas, based in New York and covering North, Central and South America and the Caribbean, has over 2,800 members in commercial and residential development, ownership, construction management, brokerage, planning, and finance. For further information visit www.ricsamericas.org or e-mail RICS Americas at ricsamericas@rics.org.
RICS Americas press contacts:
Danielle Culmone, Quinn & Co., 212.868.1900 ext. 231; dculmone@quinnandco.com
Heather Feeley, RICS Americas, 212.847.7400 ext. 12; hfeeley@rics.org
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